If we are to stop burning fossil fuels, we need to have policies in place to start phasing out fossil fuel burning cars. Based on the technologies that are on the market somewhere in the world right now, this means electric cars and perhaps hydrogen powered cars. Commercially sold hydrogen cars are also in a sense electric, as the hydrogen is not burned in an internal combustion engine but instead is combined with oxygen from the air to produce electricity in what can be thought of as reverse electrolysis. The part of the car that performs this reverse electrolysis is called a fuel cell.
See also section on renewable fuels
This Youtube video by Real Engineering gives a good overview of both technologies.
My brief summary: The low energy density of electric batteries is a real problem. Hydrogen is incredibly energy-dense, however it is tricky to handle because it is a gas with a tendency to permeate many materials. There are also energy losses in conversion and compression. In Australia, with its enormous potential to produce renewable energy, electric cars will probably stay in front and the energy density of electric batteries may improve as technology develops. It may be a different story in more densely populated countries such as Japan. This could turn out to be a huge opportunity for Australia to export hydrogen obtained using renewable energy.
Before discussing electric cars in any sort of detail, let's first refute the greatest misconception on the topic:
"There is no environmental benefit in pushing electric cars because the electricity to charge them comes from fossil fuels."
This point is often made by the same people who are also disparaging towards renewable energy. And what was the problem with renewable energy? Intermittent supply and thus a greater need for storage. So here is the refutation:
Electric cars are easy to supply with renewable energy because they come with their own storage. Given the right pricing regime, people will charge their cars when electricity is abundant, leaving electricity at other times for less flexible uses.
It's similar with hydrogen powered cars. There are different methods for obtaining hydrogen. Some emit carbon dioxide and some don't.
Electric cars are gradually getting cheaper and it seems inevitable that in a decade or two they will account for the overwhelming majority of cars sold, unless hydrogen-powered cars overtake them. So why am I advocating using government policy to accelerate the uptake of cars that don't use fossil fuel? Two reasons.
Oil countries can ramp up production and lower oil prices. Saudi Arabia has done this before and caused the oil price collapse of 2014. Here are links to graphs of Saudi oil production, and Crude oil prices
Why would Saudi Arabia do such a seemingly stupid thing? They don't make their reasoning public but a reasonable guess is that it was meant to hurt the producers of more expensive shale oil. And they can do it again to hurt the electric car industry.
But even if this is not done deliberately, the increasing popularity of electric cars will push down demand for oil and therefore oil prices. This will act as a brake on the uptake of electric cars.
By legislating for a proportion of cars (and other vehicles) to be electric or hydrogen cars, industrialised countries can give confidence to producers of such vehicles that there is a market for their cars no matter what oil prices do.
Fossil fuel burning cars that are sold now will be around for many years to come. Delays in the uptake of alternative cars will have impacts on emissions long after.
People with off-street parking will mostly charge their cars at home. But not everybody has off-street parking and people with off-street parking may do trips too long for one charge or they may not have their car at home when electricity is cheapest. Electric cars also take longer to recharge than petrol powered cars. It is therefore unlikely that electric cars will be charged at refitted petrol stations. It makes more sense for people to recharge their cars where they park anyway: in workplaces, in shopping centres, at food outlets, etc.
Hopefully, market forces will be enough for charging points to become wide-spread enough to remove range anxiety. But if not, governments should not be afraid to step in to require providers of parking spaces to supply electricity to those parking spaces. Not for free necessarily but at a reasonable cost.
This may seem like a complicated thing to do but it is actually quite simple and similar things have been done before. It also requires minimal administration by government other than auditing.
It would make sense to mandate different percentages for different price ranges and different types of car. People who can afford to spend a lot of money on a car are also more likely to be able to afford the extra cost of an electric car. The following are what I consider reasonable figures for the first year of operation. I consider a people mover to be a car with at least six genuine seats (as opposed to a station wagon with some seats put into the boot as an afterthought).
| Regular car price range | People mover price range | Mandated electric car or hydrogen car percentage |
|---|---|---|
| Up to $A20000 | Up to $A30000 | 10% |
| $A20001 to $A30000 | $A30001 to $A45000 | 20% |
| $A30001 to $A40000 | $A45001 to $A60000 | 40% |
| $A40001 to $A50000 | $A60001 to $A75000 | 60% |
| from $A50001 | from $A75001 | 80% |
The way that a mandated percentage could work is this: Every time an importer or manufacturer of electric cars or hydrogen cars sells a car it can issue certificates for the value of the car and for the car itself. Fractional certificates would be possible. Before an importer or manufacturer of a fossil fuel powered car can sell a car it would have to buy such certificates. Of course, if an importer or manufacturer sells both categories of cars, it can balance the certificates and only buy or sell certificates for the excess.
I am aware that Australia no longer has a car industry. Nevertheless, I allow for the possibility that Australia will have a car industry again at some point.
Let's do an example. An importer wants to sell a fossil fuel powered car for $36000. The applicable percentage is 40%. That means 40 electric or hydrogen cars for 60 fossil fuel powered cars. Or two thirds of an electric or hydrogen car for the car the importer wants to sell. The importer now needs to buy certificates for two thirds of an electric or hydrogen car and for $24000 (two thirds of $36000) worth of electric or hydrogen car, not necessarily corresponding to the same car.
Issuers and buyers of certificates would notify each other of the identities of the cars involved in any certificate trade and would also give that information to car dealerships who would pass it down to the ultimate buyers. In that way, no government involvement is required other than for auditing. That has the advantage that such a system could be established with laws that take effect literally the next day, with certificate trades to be tracked by email and with spreadsheets or paper until software development catches up.
In Australia the federal government could put such a system in place nationally. Alternatively, any state government could put such a system in place for the state.